In our effort to keep track of this data, we have compiled a summary of betting data for last week, week 4 of this 2014 season. There have been 57 FBS college football games played in week 4. Reading this article, it is important to understand that the breakeven point of college football betting is “winning” at the rate of 52.38%. (The standard sports book requires bettors to bet $ 110 for every $ 100 to be won.)
Therefore, any percentage above 52.38% should be considered a winner, while any percentage below 52.38% should be considered a loser for anyone’s college football picks.
Favorites and Outsiders Against Spread (ATS)
In week 4 of the college football season, the favorite beat the spread 32 times while the underdog beat the spread 24 times. (One game was a “pick” game, meaning there was no favorite.) As a result, the favorites beat the lead 57.14% of the time. The favorites in extreme college football, defined as teams favored by at least three touchdowns (21 points), have beaten the lead 12 times while losing just 6 of those games. As a result, the extreme favorites beat the spread 66.67% of the time. Small favorites, defined as teams favored by a single touchdown (seven points) or less, have beaten the lead 6 times, but have lost 12 of those games – the exact opposite results of extreme favorites. As a result, the small favorites only beat the gap 33.33% of the time.
How does the public bet
How revealing public betting can be. Conventional wisdom in sports betting suggests that betting against the public is always the best. We put this conventional wisdom to the test in this section. For teams that had the majority of public bets on their side, they beat the spread 35 times and lost 21 of those games. (One game was tied, 50-50.) Therefore, the public were right in 62.5% of Week 4 games. It really goes against that conventional wisdom. Sometimes, however, a simple majority can be misleading. We also looked at teams that had at least 60% of public bets on their side. They beat the spread 26 times and only lost 9 times. This 60% majority team beat the gap 74.29% of the time in week 4! In even more extreme public bets, the teams receiving at least 70%, beat the spread 11 times and lost only 5 times. As a result, these extreme public betting sides beat the spread 68.75% of the time.
Final analysis: week 4 ATS
An analysis of Week 4 college football betting data clearly shows that this was “public bettor” week. For the majority of the public, being right in each category (simple majorities, 60% and 70%) is rather unusual. Sports books would be bankrupt if such a phenomenon were the norm. We expect to see quite different results over the long term, and we’re especially interested in seeing how the sports books “fit” for this upcoming 5 week.